I think you have some good points here, particularly about Palin appealing to blue-collar voters in a way Hillary could only fake (I mean... really, an upper-class president's wife?) and that is dangerous. However, I have to agree with dinah in that I think you're giving the Democrats too little credit.
Throughout most of the convention Obama held an 8 point lead over McCain. At the convention's end, they're tied but to me that shows that he held up pretty well, maintaining a stronger lead than he did throughout the DNC (which I found really surprising myself). So, yes, they're tied now, but I think they're doing pretty well myself.
You're right about the attacks on Palin's family though, and thankfully Obama's told them to stop (pointing out his own mother was a teen mom) but his more aggressive supporters and idiots like Michael Moore will likely hit hard anyway. Unfortunately, as you point out, this isn't the same as Obama and Reverend Wright or Edwards and his affair. It just isn't. This looks like nothing more or less than an attack on a loving mother who's supportive of her daughter.
Yes, the Republicans are being very hypocritical about the whole thing (saying it's the parents fault in other cases, proposing abstinence only sex ed, etc.) but that doesn't really matter. Particularly since Palin's pro-life and so her decision to support her daughter is entirely morally consistent. We Democrats (and any others on our side this election) should take a tip from our candidate and lay off the personal attacks. They make us look just like the Republicans and isn't that something we want to avoid?
On the whole though, I doubt Palin will play a huge influence on this election. There's the initial splash, which will only get worse if the left doesn't stop the attacks on Palin's daughter, but overall, most people don't vote for the VP. They vote for the President. Neither Biden nor Palin will, I think, play a huge influence, and I think both will play roughly even on the VP debate(s). In the end, it will still come down to whether or not voters trust McCain or Obama. Considering how much of a political U-turn McCain's taken, my money's on Obama.
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Throughout most of the convention Obama held an 8 point lead over McCain. At the convention's end, they're tied but to me that shows that he held up pretty well, maintaining a stronger lead than he did throughout the DNC (which I found really surprising myself). So, yes, they're tied now, but I think they're doing pretty well myself.
You're right about the attacks on Palin's family though, and thankfully Obama's told them to stop (pointing out his own mother was a teen mom) but his more aggressive supporters and idiots like Michael Moore will likely hit hard anyway. Unfortunately, as you point out, this isn't the same as Obama and Reverend Wright or Edwards and his affair. It just isn't. This looks like nothing more or less than an attack on a loving mother who's supportive of her daughter.
Yes, the Republicans are being very hypocritical about the whole thing (saying it's the parents fault in other cases, proposing abstinence only sex ed, etc.) but that doesn't really matter. Particularly since Palin's pro-life and so her decision to support her daughter is entirely morally consistent. We Democrats (and any others on our side this election) should take a tip from our candidate and lay off the personal attacks. They make us look just like the Republicans and isn't that something we want to avoid?
On the whole though, I doubt Palin will play a huge influence on this election. There's the initial splash, which will only get worse if the left doesn't stop the attacks on Palin's daughter, but overall, most people don't vote for the VP. They vote for the President. Neither Biden nor Palin will, I think, play a huge influence, and I think both will play roughly even on the VP debate(s). In the end, it will still come down to whether or not voters trust McCain or Obama. Considering how much of a political U-turn McCain's taken, my money's on Obama.