I think you have some good points here, particularly about Palin appealing to blue-collar voters in a way Hillary could only fake (I mean... really, an upper-class president's wife?) and that is dangerous.
I think it was rather awesomely hilarious that she tried it. I think it only partially worked because she was married to a guy that could pass as a redneck himself.
Throughout most of the convention Obama held an 8 point lead over McCain. At the convention's end, they're tied but to me that shows that he held up pretty well, maintaining a stronger lead than he did throughout the DNC (which I found really surprising myself). So, yes, they're tied now, but I think they're doing pretty well myself.
See here's the thing that would be freaking me out if I were a Democrat right now. They're almost tied (I think they're right in the margin of error), but during the primaries Obama almost always polls a few points higher than he gets. When you add in the fact that he's counting on the youth vote to win this, that's some dicey stuff right there, especially since if they do end up turning out, this will be the first time pretty much ever. I mean how many times have the Democrats said that they were going to have the youth vote come out - and then they all stayed at home?
On the whole though, I doubt Palin will play a huge influence on this election.
I dunno. I think she already has in the fact that she's helped the Republicans get excited about their own candidate. Just her impact on fundraising already is pretty huge. And I don't think it's accidental that over the last few days, they've been campaigning in the rust belt states pretty hard core. Normally I'd agree that people tend to vote for the top of the ticket first and foremost - but really, this has been one crazy ass election year, and I think like the Republican base, a lot of the Reagan Democrats are looking for a reason to be excited about McCain, and he just handed them one.
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I think it was rather awesomely hilarious that she tried it. I think it only partially worked because she was married to a guy that could pass as a redneck himself.
Throughout most of the convention Obama held an 8 point lead over McCain. At the convention's end, they're tied but to me that shows that he held up pretty well, maintaining a stronger lead than he did throughout the DNC (which I found really surprising myself). So, yes, they're tied now, but I think they're doing pretty well myself.
See here's the thing that would be freaking me out if I were a Democrat right now. They're almost tied (I think they're right in the margin of error), but during the primaries Obama almost always polls a few points higher than he gets. When you add in the fact that he's counting on the youth vote to win this, that's some dicey stuff right there, especially since if they do end up turning out, this will be the first time pretty much ever. I mean how many times have the Democrats said that they were going to have the youth vote come out - and then they all stayed at home?
On the whole though, I doubt Palin will play a huge influence on this election.
I dunno. I think she already has in the fact that she's helped the Republicans get excited about their own candidate. Just her impact on fundraising already is pretty huge. And I don't think it's accidental that over the last few days, they've been campaigning in the rust belt states pretty hard core. Normally I'd agree that people tend to vote for the top of the ticket first and foremost - but really, this has been one crazy ass election year, and I think like the Republican base, a lot of the Reagan Democrats are looking for a reason to be excited about McCain, and he just handed them one.
I guess we'll have to wait and see.