prisoner_24601 (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
prisoner_24601) wrote2008-09-05 09:27 am
prisoner_24601) wrote2008-09-05 09:27 am
Oh, Democrats...
You're killing me here. Once again, you're about to screw the pooch, because you simply do not understand why McCain chose Sarah Palin for his VP, why she is dangerous to your party and how on earth to handle her.
Michigan should not be in play in this election. We've voted for Democrats in the last five presidential elections. We have a Democrat Governor, a Democrat controlled state house and senate. Both of our senators are democrats. We're bigtime union country and our economy is actually worse than the rest of the nation. And yet, we are in play – which tells me one thing:
Obama is in big fucking trouble, and needs to do something about it RIGHT NOW.
You need to understand that despite all the talk about her appealing to all the disgruntled Clinton women PUMA voters, that's not even the primary reason he chose her. And that all of the hollering and screaming about “OMG JOHN MCCAIN IS ASSUMING WE'LL VOTE WITH HER BECAUSE SHE HAS A VAGINA. WHAT A FUCKTARD!” is completely missing the point.
This is what John McCain wanted to do with this pick:
Steal Obama's thunder right after his speech at the end of the DNC and to keep the press on the Republicans until after the RNC. Let's face it, if the VP choice had been less shocking it would have been a footnote, and Obama's DNC speech that would have gotten days of airtime coverage. As it is – the Democrats are so desperate for media attention that Obama went on Bill O'Riley's show last night, because they knew it would make headlines.
Galvanize his base of conservatives who have been totally lukewarm towards him but now are just as excited about her as Democrats are about Obama.
Rub salt in the wound and keep the wedge between the disgruntled Hillary voters and the Obama supporters. I really don't think McCain figures he's going gain many votes from the women who vote mostly on Roe v. Wade. But what he wants to do is keep them pissed off enough at the Obama camp so that they stay home or vote for a third party candidate. And every sexist statement by the media or your supporters helps make this happen.
Add someone onto the ticket who's not a Washington insider. This is another huge bonus, because people love voting for governors. In fact, there's only been two siting congressmen that have ever won a presidential ticket. And as much as people hate Bush, they hate congress even more (they have what, a 19% approval rating? Even Bush has more supporters than that). The fact that she's from Alaska makes it even better, because people romanticize the state,like it's the last frontier or something.
Woo the independents and Reagan Democrats. This is where he's planning on picking up votes – from the NASCAR, blue collar, gun toting, pickup driving, union, church going, deer hunting crowd. And dude... she's tailor made to appeal to them. They love her, and they think of her as one of their own which is why when Democrats attack her family choices they're shooting themselves in the foot. If she plays well here, I suspect she'll also be popular in Ohio, Penn and other states that are heavy with Reagan Democrats.
So what should you do?
Back the fuck off when it comes to asking about whether or not she can handle being a mom and on the pregnancy of her daughter, because if this campaign becomes about Sarah Palin's family – you're going to lose.
Stick to the issues, especially the economy and gas prices, and pound the shit out of the Republicans there. Talk about how how jobs are moving out of the country – and what the hell you're going to do about it.
Stop trying to compare Palin's experience to Obama's experience. Let's face it, their experience is equally thin. And since your inexperienced candidate is on the top of the ticket, you're the ones with the most to lose. Besides, this argument is a loser argument. It didn't work for Hillary. It didn't work for McCain, and it's not going to work against Palin. It's a waste of time, and turns one of your biggest strengths (that Obama hasn't spent tons of time in Washington) into a weakness.
Don't make anymore statements about guns and religion. Do not let them make you out to be one of the out of touch, intellectual elite, Washington insiders.
And for Michigan specifically – take advantage of the fact that Kwami Kilpatrick has finally been booted out of office. Point out that it was the Democrats that were the driving force getting him out and fighting corruption from within their own party.
Seriously. Don't underestimate this choice, by minimizing it or thinking it's stupid. It's goddamned brilliant. It's your election to lose, and in the last week or so, you've done a spectacular job at fucking up an almost sure thing.
Michigan should not be in play in this election. We've voted for Democrats in the last five presidential elections. We have a Democrat Governor, a Democrat controlled state house and senate. Both of our senators are democrats. We're bigtime union country and our economy is actually worse than the rest of the nation. And yet, we are in play – which tells me one thing:
Obama is in big fucking trouble, and needs to do something about it RIGHT NOW.
You need to understand that despite all the talk about her appealing to all the disgruntled Clinton women PUMA voters, that's not even the primary reason he chose her. And that all of the hollering and screaming about “OMG JOHN MCCAIN IS ASSUMING WE'LL VOTE WITH HER BECAUSE SHE HAS A VAGINA. WHAT A FUCKTARD!” is completely missing the point.
This is what John McCain wanted to do with this pick:
Steal Obama's thunder right after his speech at the end of the DNC and to keep the press on the Republicans until after the RNC. Let's face it, if the VP choice had been less shocking it would have been a footnote, and Obama's DNC speech that would have gotten days of airtime coverage. As it is – the Democrats are so desperate for media attention that Obama went on Bill O'Riley's show last night, because they knew it would make headlines.
Galvanize his base of conservatives who have been totally lukewarm towards him but now are just as excited about her as Democrats are about Obama.
Rub salt in the wound and keep the wedge between the disgruntled Hillary voters and the Obama supporters. I really don't think McCain figures he's going gain many votes from the women who vote mostly on Roe v. Wade. But what he wants to do is keep them pissed off enough at the Obama camp so that they stay home or vote for a third party candidate. And every sexist statement by the media or your supporters helps make this happen.
Add someone onto the ticket who's not a Washington insider. This is another huge bonus, because people love voting for governors. In fact, there's only been two siting congressmen that have ever won a presidential ticket. And as much as people hate Bush, they hate congress even more (they have what, a 19% approval rating? Even Bush has more supporters than that). The fact that she's from Alaska makes it even better, because people romanticize the state,like it's the last frontier or something.
Woo the independents and Reagan Democrats. This is where he's planning on picking up votes – from the NASCAR, blue collar, gun toting, pickup driving, union, church going, deer hunting crowd. And dude... she's tailor made to appeal to them. They love her, and they think of her as one of their own which is why when Democrats attack her family choices they're shooting themselves in the foot. If she plays well here, I suspect she'll also be popular in Ohio, Penn and other states that are heavy with Reagan Democrats.
So what should you do?
Back the fuck off when it comes to asking about whether or not she can handle being a mom and on the pregnancy of her daughter, because if this campaign becomes about Sarah Palin's family – you're going to lose.
Stick to the issues, especially the economy and gas prices, and pound the shit out of the Republicans there. Talk about how how jobs are moving out of the country – and what the hell you're going to do about it.
Stop trying to compare Palin's experience to Obama's experience. Let's face it, their experience is equally thin. And since your inexperienced candidate is on the top of the ticket, you're the ones with the most to lose. Besides, this argument is a loser argument. It didn't work for Hillary. It didn't work for McCain, and it's not going to work against Palin. It's a waste of time, and turns one of your biggest strengths (that Obama hasn't spent tons of time in Washington) into a weakness.
Don't make anymore statements about guns and religion. Do not let them make you out to be one of the out of touch, intellectual elite, Washington insiders.
And for Michigan specifically – take advantage of the fact that Kwami Kilpatrick has finally been booted out of office. Point out that it was the Democrats that were the driving force getting him out and fighting corruption from within their own party.
Seriously. Don't underestimate this choice, by minimizing it or thinking it's stupid. It's goddamned brilliant. It's your election to lose, and in the last week or so, you've done a spectacular job at fucking up an almost sure thing.
no subject
I think the reason they didn't do it before the DNC (other than the obvious reason) is because they didn't want to announce her right before the Democrats had 4 days of unlimited tv coverage and a ton of speakers who could start making the case against her (thereby killing the momentum), before they really got the chance to introduce her themselves.
Conventions are strange things, and Palin's snarky, "pitbull" style isn't going to fly in debates and policy discussions the way it did in front of a stadium of supporters.
See, I disagree here - especially when it comes to the debates. She's going up against Joe Biden, who isn't exactly known for tact and tip toeing around the issues. From what I can tell, the Democrats picked him to be their attack dog, and she's going to go toe to toe with him.
So here we have this old crusty Democrat going up against a hockey mom from Alaska? She's being sold as the underdog here, the Washington outsider - and I think that appeals to a lot of people (Christ, they might as well call her Mrs. Smith Goes to Washington. It's like something right out of a Frank Capra film). She's going to be able to get away with a lot more than he is and I actually expect her to kick Biden's ass in the debates, but we'll see if I'm right.
Then again, I think Joe Biden was a terrible VP pick on the Democrat's side. Not that I think they should have necessarily picked Hillary (I think Obama was between a rock and a hard place on that one) - but I really don't think they gain very much with him on the ticket.
And the kerfuffle around her daughter and mom stuff is going to die down, hopefully reducing the chances for Democratic supporters to make asses of themselves (not Obama himself; he's been classy about the whole thing from what I've seen) and for Republicans to play the paternalistic protectors of poor maligned Sarah.
I agree that Obama has been classy about this whole thing, and I'm really not sure what he could do to get his supporters to chill out.
But I still think that there's time for other people to royally fuck this one up for him. For example, Michael Moore is going to be on Larry King tonight. Given his track record, I expect him to say something totally moronic that's going to get everyone pissed at the Democrats. Those are the people the Democrats need to put a freaking muzzle on.
It is the Democrats' race to lose, but they haven't lost it already. It's early September, and I'm not ready to panic yet.
Oh I agree that it's not all lost (Rasmussen Reports has them just about even - taking in the information from the start of the convention, but not her speech), but let's face it, Democrats are pros at losing races that they should have won. Right now is the crucial time though. If they let the Republicans define the debate and make it about hard middle class working people vs. east and west coast elitists and liberal media (which is what the Palin pick is all about), they're going to lose - just like they've lost before.
Or not. I could be wrong lol.
no subject
But there's more to this election than the VP choices (though you wouldn't know it from the last week). The two campaigns are running two different strategies. They were exemplified in the convention speeches. Obama sounded like he was giving a State of the Union address. McCain sounded like he was reading a chapter of his memoir. (By the way, did you notice that Sarah Palin said something derogatory about prisoners' rights and people who write memoirs? Has she met John McCain?)
The Republicans are choosing to run on character, and I don't think it will be enough. Not because of any flaws in their character but because nobody's found much in looking for flaws in Obama and Biden (and Lord knows they've tried).
But the Republicans didn't really have a choice because given the state of the country, the Democrats have the ideology and issue side locked up. If they stay on message (like they did at the DNC), especially about the war, I think they'll be fine. Because there are plenty of flaws on the issues on the Republican side. Enough to fill a plane back to Arizona.
no subject
You may be right about that. We'll have to wait and see. I suspect though that she's not anymore guilty of doing this than any other political candidate out there. They all talk out of both sides of their mouths.
But there's more to this election than the VP choices (though you wouldn't know it from the last week). The two campaigns are running two different strategies. They were exemplified in the convention speeches. Obama sounded like he was giving a State of the Union address. McCain sounded like he was reading a chapter of his memoir.
Agreed that there's much more going on than the VP picks. And also agreed that McCain dropped the ball on his own speech, which among other things, really freaking boring.
(By the way, did you notice that Sarah Palin said something derogatory about prisoners' rights and people who write memoirs? Has she met John McCain?)
Lol yeah I did see that. That's certainly the kind of thing the Democrats and their supporters need to be focusing on.
But the Republicans didn't really have a choice because given the state of the country, the Democrats have the ideology and issue side locked up. If they stay on message (like they did at the DNC), especially about the war, I think they'll be fine. Because there are plenty of flaws on the issues on the Republican side.
Personally, I think there are plenty of flaws in the ideology of both sides, and I really don't think it's a slam dunk for Democrats there. However, I do think that the state of the economy at the moment makes their Democrat arguments more attractive - which is why they really need to stay on point and not get sucked into a class war.
no subject
Exactly. If they stick to their platform and avoid getting sucked into anything irrelevant, they can make it happen.