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You're killing me here. Once again, you're about to screw the pooch, because you simply do not understand why McCain chose Sarah Palin for his VP, why she is dangerous to your party and how on earth to handle her.
Michigan should not be in play in this election. We've voted for Democrats in the last five presidential elections. We have a Democrat Governor, a Democrat controlled state house and senate. Both of our senators are democrats. We're bigtime union country and our economy is actually worse than the rest of the nation. And yet, we are in play – which tells me one thing:
Obama is in big fucking trouble, and needs to do something about it RIGHT NOW.
You need to understand that despite all the talk about her appealing to all the disgruntled Clinton women PUMA voters, that's not even the primary reason he chose her. And that all of the hollering and screaming about “OMG JOHN MCCAIN IS ASSUMING WE'LL VOTE WITH HER BECAUSE SHE HAS A VAGINA. WHAT A FUCKTARD!” is completely missing the point.
This is what John McCain wanted to do with this pick:
Steal Obama's thunder right after his speech at the end of the DNC and to keep the press on the Republicans until after the RNC. Let's face it, if the VP choice had been less shocking it would have been a footnote, and Obama's DNC speech that would have gotten days of airtime coverage. As it is – the Democrats are so desperate for media attention that Obama went on Bill O'Riley's show last night, because they knew it would make headlines.
Galvanize his base of conservatives who have been totally lukewarm towards him but now are just as excited about her as Democrats are about Obama.
Rub salt in the wound and keep the wedge between the disgruntled Hillary voters and the Obama supporters. I really don't think McCain figures he's going gain many votes from the women who vote mostly on Roe v. Wade. But what he wants to do is keep them pissed off enough at the Obama camp so that they stay home or vote for a third party candidate. And every sexist statement by the media or your supporters helps make this happen.
Add someone onto the ticket who's not a Washington insider. This is another huge bonus, because people love voting for governors. In fact, there's only been two siting congressmen that have ever won a presidential ticket. And as much as people hate Bush, they hate congress even more (they have what, a 19% approval rating? Even Bush has more supporters than that). The fact that she's from Alaska makes it even better, because people romanticize the state,like it's the last frontier or something.
Woo the independents and Reagan Democrats. This is where he's planning on picking up votes – from the NASCAR, blue collar, gun toting, pickup driving, union, church going, deer hunting crowd. And dude... she's tailor made to appeal to them. They love her, and they think of her as one of their own which is why when Democrats attack her family choices they're shooting themselves in the foot. If she plays well here, I suspect she'll also be popular in Ohio, Penn and other states that are heavy with Reagan Democrats.
So what should you do?
Back the fuck off when it comes to asking about whether or not she can handle being a mom and on the pregnancy of her daughter, because if this campaign becomes about Sarah Palin's family – you're going to lose.
Stick to the issues, especially the economy and gas prices, and pound the shit out of the Republicans there. Talk about how how jobs are moving out of the country – and what the hell you're going to do about it.
Stop trying to compare Palin's experience to Obama's experience. Let's face it, their experience is equally thin. And since your inexperienced candidate is on the top of the ticket, you're the ones with the most to lose. Besides, this argument is a loser argument. It didn't work for Hillary. It didn't work for McCain, and it's not going to work against Palin. It's a waste of time, and turns one of your biggest strengths (that Obama hasn't spent tons of time in Washington) into a weakness.
Don't make anymore statements about guns and religion. Do not let them make you out to be one of the out of touch, intellectual elite, Washington insiders.
And for Michigan specifically – take advantage of the fact that Kwami Kilpatrick has finally been booted out of office. Point out that it was the Democrats that were the driving force getting him out and fighting corruption from within their own party.
Seriously. Don't underestimate this choice, by minimizing it or thinking it's stupid. It's goddamned brilliant. It's your election to lose, and in the last week or so, you've done a spectacular job at fucking up an almost sure thing.
Michigan should not be in play in this election. We've voted for Democrats in the last five presidential elections. We have a Democrat Governor, a Democrat controlled state house and senate. Both of our senators are democrats. We're bigtime union country and our economy is actually worse than the rest of the nation. And yet, we are in play – which tells me one thing:
Obama is in big fucking trouble, and needs to do something about it RIGHT NOW.
You need to understand that despite all the talk about her appealing to all the disgruntled Clinton women PUMA voters, that's not even the primary reason he chose her. And that all of the hollering and screaming about “OMG JOHN MCCAIN IS ASSUMING WE'LL VOTE WITH HER BECAUSE SHE HAS A VAGINA. WHAT A FUCKTARD!” is completely missing the point.
This is what John McCain wanted to do with this pick:
Steal Obama's thunder right after his speech at the end of the DNC and to keep the press on the Republicans until after the RNC. Let's face it, if the VP choice had been less shocking it would have been a footnote, and Obama's DNC speech that would have gotten days of airtime coverage. As it is – the Democrats are so desperate for media attention that Obama went on Bill O'Riley's show last night, because they knew it would make headlines.
Galvanize his base of conservatives who have been totally lukewarm towards him but now are just as excited about her as Democrats are about Obama.
Rub salt in the wound and keep the wedge between the disgruntled Hillary voters and the Obama supporters. I really don't think McCain figures he's going gain many votes from the women who vote mostly on Roe v. Wade. But what he wants to do is keep them pissed off enough at the Obama camp so that they stay home or vote for a third party candidate. And every sexist statement by the media or your supporters helps make this happen.
Add someone onto the ticket who's not a Washington insider. This is another huge bonus, because people love voting for governors. In fact, there's only been two siting congressmen that have ever won a presidential ticket. And as much as people hate Bush, they hate congress even more (they have what, a 19% approval rating? Even Bush has more supporters than that). The fact that she's from Alaska makes it even better, because people romanticize the state,like it's the last frontier or something.
Woo the independents and Reagan Democrats. This is where he's planning on picking up votes – from the NASCAR, blue collar, gun toting, pickup driving, union, church going, deer hunting crowd. And dude... she's tailor made to appeal to them. They love her, and they think of her as one of their own which is why when Democrats attack her family choices they're shooting themselves in the foot. If she plays well here, I suspect she'll also be popular in Ohio, Penn and other states that are heavy with Reagan Democrats.
So what should you do?
Back the fuck off when it comes to asking about whether or not she can handle being a mom and on the pregnancy of her daughter, because if this campaign becomes about Sarah Palin's family – you're going to lose.
Stick to the issues, especially the economy and gas prices, and pound the shit out of the Republicans there. Talk about how how jobs are moving out of the country – and what the hell you're going to do about it.
Stop trying to compare Palin's experience to Obama's experience. Let's face it, their experience is equally thin. And since your inexperienced candidate is on the top of the ticket, you're the ones with the most to lose. Besides, this argument is a loser argument. It didn't work for Hillary. It didn't work for McCain, and it's not going to work against Palin. It's a waste of time, and turns one of your biggest strengths (that Obama hasn't spent tons of time in Washington) into a weakness.
Don't make anymore statements about guns and religion. Do not let them make you out to be one of the out of touch, intellectual elite, Washington insiders.
And for Michigan specifically – take advantage of the fact that Kwami Kilpatrick has finally been booted out of office. Point out that it was the Democrats that were the driving force getting him out and fighting corruption from within their own party.
Seriously. Don't underestimate this choice, by minimizing it or thinking it's stupid. It's goddamned brilliant. It's your election to lose, and in the last week or so, you've done a spectacular job at fucking up an almost sure thing.
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Conventions are strange things, and Palin's snarky, "pitbull" style isn't going to fly in debates and policy discussions the way it did in front of a stadium of supporters. And the kerfuffle around her daughter and mom stuff is going to die down, hopefully reducing the chances for Democratic supporters to make asses of themselves (not Obama himself; he's been classy about the whole thing from what I've seen) and for Republicans to play the paternalistic protectors of poor maligned Sarah.
It is the Democrats' race to lose, but they haven't lost it already. It's early September, and I'm not ready to panic yet.
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I think the reason they didn't do it before the DNC (other than the obvious reason) is because they didn't want to announce her right before the Democrats had 4 days of unlimited tv coverage and a ton of speakers who could start making the case against her (thereby killing the momentum), before they really got the chance to introduce her themselves.
Conventions are strange things, and Palin's snarky, "pitbull" style isn't going to fly in debates and policy discussions the way it did in front of a stadium of supporters.
See, I disagree here - especially when it comes to the debates. She's going up against Joe Biden, who isn't exactly known for tact and tip toeing around the issues. From what I can tell, the Democrats picked him to be their attack dog, and she's going to go toe to toe with him.
So here we have this old crusty Democrat going up against a hockey mom from Alaska? She's being sold as the underdog here, the Washington outsider - and I think that appeals to a lot of people (Christ, they might as well call her Mrs. Smith Goes to Washington. It's like something right out of a Frank Capra film). She's going to be able to get away with a lot more than he is and I actually expect her to kick Biden's ass in the debates, but we'll see if I'm right.
Then again, I think Joe Biden was a terrible VP pick on the Democrat's side. Not that I think they should have necessarily picked Hillary (I think Obama was between a rock and a hard place on that one) - but I really don't think they gain very much with him on the ticket.
And the kerfuffle around her daughter and mom stuff is going to die down, hopefully reducing the chances for Democratic supporters to make asses of themselves (not Obama himself; he's been classy about the whole thing from what I've seen) and for Republicans to play the paternalistic protectors of poor maligned Sarah.
I agree that Obama has been classy about this whole thing, and I'm really not sure what he could do to get his supporters to chill out.
But I still think that there's time for other people to royally fuck this one up for him. For example, Michael Moore is going to be on Larry King tonight. Given his track record, I expect him to say something totally moronic that's going to get everyone pissed at the Democrats. Those are the people the Democrats need to put a freaking muzzle on.
It is the Democrats' race to lose, but they haven't lost it already. It's early September, and I'm not ready to panic yet.
Oh I agree that it's not all lost (Rasmussen Reports has them just about even - taking in the information from the start of the convention, but not her speech), but let's face it, Democrats are pros at losing races that they should have won. Right now is the crucial time though. If they let the Republicans define the debate and make it about hard middle class working people vs. east and west coast elitists and liberal media (which is what the Palin pick is all about), they're going to lose - just like they've lost before.
Or not. I could be wrong lol.
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But there's more to this election than the VP choices (though you wouldn't know it from the last week). The two campaigns are running two different strategies. They were exemplified in the convention speeches. Obama sounded like he was giving a State of the Union address. McCain sounded like he was reading a chapter of his memoir. (By the way, did you notice that Sarah Palin said something derogatory about prisoners' rights and people who write memoirs? Has she met John McCain?)
The Republicans are choosing to run on character, and I don't think it will be enough. Not because of any flaws in their character but because nobody's found much in looking for flaws in Obama and Biden (and Lord knows they've tried).
But the Republicans didn't really have a choice because given the state of the country, the Democrats have the ideology and issue side locked up. If they stay on message (like they did at the DNC), especially about the war, I think they'll be fine. Because there are plenty of flaws on the issues on the Republican side. Enough to fill a plane back to Arizona.
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You may be right about that. We'll have to wait and see. I suspect though that she's not anymore guilty of doing this than any other political candidate out there. They all talk out of both sides of their mouths.
But there's more to this election than the VP choices (though you wouldn't know it from the last week). The two campaigns are running two different strategies. They were exemplified in the convention speeches. Obama sounded like he was giving a State of the Union address. McCain sounded like he was reading a chapter of his memoir.
Agreed that there's much more going on than the VP picks. And also agreed that McCain dropped the ball on his own speech, which among other things, really freaking boring.
(By the way, did you notice that Sarah Palin said something derogatory about prisoners' rights and people who write memoirs? Has she met John McCain?)
Lol yeah I did see that. That's certainly the kind of thing the Democrats and their supporters need to be focusing on.
But the Republicans didn't really have a choice because given the state of the country, the Democrats have the ideology and issue side locked up. If they stay on message (like they did at the DNC), especially about the war, I think they'll be fine. Because there are plenty of flaws on the issues on the Republican side.
Personally, I think there are plenty of flaws in the ideology of both sides, and I really don't think it's a slam dunk for Democrats there. However, I do think that the state of the economy at the moment makes their Democrat arguments more attractive - which is why they really need to stay on point and not get sucked into a class war.
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Exactly. If they stick to their platform and avoid getting sucked into anything irrelevant, they can make it happen.
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Throughout most of the convention Obama held an 8 point lead over McCain. At the convention's end, they're tied but to me that shows that he held up pretty well, maintaining a stronger lead than he did throughout the DNC (which I found really surprising myself). So, yes, they're tied now, but I think they're doing pretty well myself.
You're right about the attacks on Palin's family though, and thankfully Obama's told them to stop (pointing out his own mother was a teen mom) but his more aggressive supporters and idiots like Michael Moore will likely hit hard anyway. Unfortunately, as you point out, this isn't the same as Obama and Reverend Wright or Edwards and his affair. It just isn't. This looks like nothing more or less than an attack on a loving mother who's supportive of her daughter.
Yes, the Republicans are being very hypocritical about the whole thing (saying it's the parents fault in other cases, proposing abstinence only sex ed, etc.) but that doesn't really matter. Particularly since Palin's pro-life and so her decision to support her daughter is entirely morally consistent. We Democrats (and any others on our side this election) should take a tip from our candidate and lay off the personal attacks. They make us look just like the Republicans and isn't that something we want to avoid?
On the whole though, I doubt Palin will play a huge influence on this election. There's the initial splash, which will only get worse if the left doesn't stop the attacks on Palin's daughter, but overall, most people don't vote for the VP. They vote for the President. Neither Biden nor Palin will, I think, play a huge influence, and I think both will play roughly even on the VP debate(s). In the end, it will still come down to whether or not voters trust McCain or Obama. Considering how much of a political U-turn McCain's taken, my money's on Obama.
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I think it was rather awesomely hilarious that she tried it. I think it only partially worked because she was married to a guy that could pass as a redneck himself.
Throughout most of the convention Obama held an 8 point lead over McCain. At the convention's end, they're tied but to me that shows that he held up pretty well, maintaining a stronger lead than he did throughout the DNC (which I found really surprising myself). So, yes, they're tied now, but I think they're doing pretty well myself.
See here's the thing that would be freaking me out if I were a Democrat right now. They're almost tied (I think they're right in the margin of error), but during the primaries Obama almost always polls a few points higher than he gets. When you add in the fact that he's counting on the youth vote to win this, that's some dicey stuff right there, especially since if they do end up turning out, this will be the first time pretty much ever. I mean how many times have the Democrats said that they were going to have the youth vote come out - and then they all stayed at home?
On the whole though, I doubt Palin will play a huge influence on this election.
I dunno. I think she already has in the fact that she's helped the Republicans get excited about their own candidate. Just her impact on fundraising already is pretty huge. And I don't think it's accidental that over the last few days, they've been campaigning in the rust belt states pretty hard core. Normally I'd agree that people tend to vote for the top of the ticket first and foremost - but really, this has been one crazy ass election year, and I think like the Republican base, a lot of the Reagan Democrats are looking for a reason to be excited about McCain, and he just handed them one.
I guess we'll have to wait and see.
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And I definitely agree that Palin is invigorating the Republican base. I guess it really comes down to, as usual, how many Democrats get out and vote. I'm always frustrated with my party's inability to actually vote for what it believes in (as far as I'm concerned, in a republic where you can vote you have no write to complain if you don't participate) but I'm hopeful that Obama appealing to both black voters and young people (like me, admittedly) will make demographics that are typically low in participation more likely to vote come November.
But we'll just have to wait and see. I know what you mean by "dicey."
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Folks are scared really, this whole election is something very new. Everything is a turning point. We have a our first black candiate for President. Ya, damn right the otherside wants to "shock and awe" us to go back to the 1950's "small town values. The Democrates are scared too, they have something very historic happening in their own party, and want to do everything to keep their lamb safe from the slaughter. Hopefully, they won't shoot themselves in the foot. Its early in the game.
McCain and his VP don't "get it" but they were never talking to folks like me in the first place. Yeah, I heard her statements about prisoners. Well, she and McCain don't have worry about the ex-convicts in all the red states(southern states) about voting since they lost that right. So there goes the half the minority votes right there. They're not counting on the other minority folks to come out and vote.
That's my "straight talk" right there. Sorry, if I sounded a little pissy, but I don't like where they want to take the country. That's who they are appealing too, the folks that want to go back to era. I can see it in my own city, the progress that was made, is slowly being eroded back to what it use to be.
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I don't mind your "straight talk," which as I see it is a lot less offensive than frankly alot of people I've seen. It's one thing to try and keep an open mind. It's another to simply ignore what's genuinely in front of you in order to avoid offending anyone (one reason I can't stand political correctness in spite of being a genuine liberal Democrat).
So here's to saying what you think - so long as you don't get carried away ;).
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I didn't like her speech, about "small town values". It sounded like they want to return to the 1950s. The whole thing, to me, sounded like a rally for "White America" to stop the Democrates from changing the establishment. So they nominate "wholesome Mrs.America" as a VP. I do agree with you about laying off the personal attacks.
I think this is part of her appeal - especially to the Republican base. What's odd is that she can also appeal to the Redneck crowd too, which I find kind of amazing because those two groups don't always get along.
They're not counting on the other minority folks to come out and vote.
Agreed. This is certainly one of the things they're counting on. They're also hoping that the youth vote doesn't come out too.
Personally, I'd love to see them actually try and reach out to those groups for a change. I think eventually it will bite them in the ass that they don't.
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Agreed. I think it's a universal thing where people just assume that if you come from similar backgrounds, that you must understand them more than the other guy.
I don't really blame the Republicans for exploiting this - after all this is politics and the Democrats have been known to do this too. I do, however, think the Democrats are dumbasses for dithering talking about totally stupid shit for the last seven days instead of focusing on the issues.
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From: (Anonymous)
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See, this is where I am torn. I'm an Independent, and agree strongly that the healthcare situation (or rather people being able to afford decent healthcare) is a major Democratic selling point.
Then again, while I'm very interested in Obama's message, his foreign policy inexperiance worries me. For example, his latest gaffe about the Georgia situation - He said we should bring it up to the UN and pass a resolution - basically have the UN make Russia stop. Dude, while personally I'm not sure wtf to do, even I know that Russia sits on the security council and would Veto anything.
I also recognise that - despite what he says - some of the domestic plans will invove tax increases. If not for me personally, then indirectly. The 'fat-cat businessmen' whom he does hit for taxes will pass along any costs they have to the consumer. They always do. Or they decide taxes are too high and just move the businesses overseas, resulting in job loss.
The trick is to balance the needs of business with having them pay their fair share. I'm not so sure he can.
On the other hand, I'm really not all that thrilled on McCain. I think Pris' post was spot on, the Democrats are seriously screwing up with the Palin issue.
I can't tell you how extremely pissed the hell off I was over the down-syndrome baby crap. I had an on-line political blog friend pass along some Palin shit when her name was announced, which included some baby comments.
Wtf... seriously Pris, the Dems need to hire you to kick some sense into them. While I recognise all that crap isn't Obama's view, if he can't seem to reign in the crazies on his side he's going to blow this. Which would totally suck as a reason to lose.
--Feza
Posting on my work comp (Shhhhh)
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Yes. THIS, THIS AND MORE THIS...
Yup. My worry about this is that I'm skeptical that we're going to be able to pay for some kind of national health care as well as social security, medicare, medicaid and all the other government entitlement programs.
But I totally get why this appeals to people. Health care is so completely fucked up right now and something really has to be done (hell if I know what that is... but I'm willing to listen to both sides).
Then again, while I'm very interested in Obama's message, his foreign policy inexperiance worries me. For example, his latest gaffe about the Georgia situation - He said we should bring it up to the UN and pass a resolution - basically have the UN make Russia stop. Dude, while personally I'm not sure wtf to do, even I know that Russia sits on the security council and would Veto anything.
Yeah, this was a really bad moment for the Obama campaign. There was a big *facepalm* for me that day.
I also recognise that - despite what he says - some of the domestic plans will invove tax increases. If not for me personally, then indirectly. The 'fat-cat businessmen' whom he does hit for taxes will pass along any costs they have to the consumer. They always do. Or they decide taxes are too high and just move the businesses overseas, resulting in job loss.
The trick is to balance the needs of business with having them pay their fair share. I'm not so sure he can.
Exactly. Over the last five years my husband has been laid off three times, and I've watched business after business after business move out of Michigan. In fact, at his current job, they're moving an entire shift over to Malaysia and we're wondering how long it will take for the whole division to move overseas.
But why are jobs moving out of Michigan to other states and countries - because our corporate business tax is one of the highest in the nation. And when you add that to the federal corporate tax - it's just cheaper for them to move out.
What's the answer? I dunno. I just know that adding to their tax burden is going to make a bad situation much much worse.
There has to be a way to find balance there, but I'm not sure that Obama is willing to find it.
On the other hand, I'm really not all that thrilled on McCain.
Me either. He has just as many wtf moments as Obama has and just as many policy problems too.
I can't tell you how extremely pissed the hell off I was over the down-syndrome baby crap. I had an on-line political blog friend pass along some Palin shit when her name was announced, which included some baby comments.
Pretty despicable stuff. What makes this even crazier is that the Democrats are the ones that are supposed to be championing people like these - and this sends the message of, "We only care about people like this, if they're on our side." Bad, bad, bad.
While I recognise all that crap isn't Obama's view, if he can't seem to reign in the crazies on his side he's going to blow this.
Yup. I think his friends are much more harmful to him than his enemies. It will be interesting to see if he can get them under control.
From: (Anonymous)
Re: Yes. THIS, THIS AND MORE THIS...
omg yes, he's probably wishing they would all STFU.
http://explorations.chasrmartin.com/2008/09/06/palin-rumors/
is now up to 66 rumors and counting.
Now I'm starting to wonder if the Repubs are planting this to make the Dems look like elitist pricks... then I wander over to some Dem sites and see it for myself and WTF...
Then more political ads come on the TV over and over - omg everybody STFU! It's overkill.
-Feza
(Shhhh still at work)
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So far, Obama's supporters appear not to be listening to your advice.
For your amusement and/or mourning, I give you: http://explorations.chasrmartin.com/2008/09/06/palin-rumors/
and also http://palinsexismwatch.blogspot.com/
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I tend to get all worked up about this though because watching the Democrats do this to themselves is much like watching Charlie Brown trying to kick Lucy's football. At some point, you want to smack him upside the head and call him a dumbass.