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You're killing me here. Once again, you're about to screw the pooch, because you simply do not understand why McCain chose Sarah Palin for his VP, why she is dangerous to your party and how on earth to handle her.
Michigan should not be in play in this election. We've voted for Democrats in the last five presidential elections. We have a Democrat Governor, a Democrat controlled state house and senate. Both of our senators are democrats. We're bigtime union country and our economy is actually worse than the rest of the nation. And yet, we are in play – which tells me one thing:
Obama is in big fucking trouble, and needs to do something about it RIGHT NOW.
You need to understand that despite all the talk about her appealing to all the disgruntled Clinton women PUMA voters, that's not even the primary reason he chose her. And that all of the hollering and screaming about “OMG JOHN MCCAIN IS ASSUMING WE'LL VOTE WITH HER BECAUSE SHE HAS A VAGINA. WHAT A FUCKTARD!” is completely missing the point.
This is what John McCain wanted to do with this pick:
Steal Obama's thunder right after his speech at the end of the DNC and to keep the press on the Republicans until after the RNC. Let's face it, if the VP choice had been less shocking it would have been a footnote, and Obama's DNC speech that would have gotten days of airtime coverage. As it is – the Democrats are so desperate for media attention that Obama went on Bill O'Riley's show last night, because they knew it would make headlines.
Galvanize his base of conservatives who have been totally lukewarm towards him but now are just as excited about her as Democrats are about Obama.
Rub salt in the wound and keep the wedge between the disgruntled Hillary voters and the Obama supporters. I really don't think McCain figures he's going gain many votes from the women who vote mostly on Roe v. Wade. But what he wants to do is keep them pissed off enough at the Obama camp so that they stay home or vote for a third party candidate. And every sexist statement by the media or your supporters helps make this happen.
Add someone onto the ticket who's not a Washington insider. This is another huge bonus, because people love voting for governors. In fact, there's only been two siting congressmen that have ever won a presidential ticket. And as much as people hate Bush, they hate congress even more (they have what, a 19% approval rating? Even Bush has more supporters than that). The fact that she's from Alaska makes it even better, because people romanticize the state,like it's the last frontier or something.
Woo the independents and Reagan Democrats. This is where he's planning on picking up votes – from the NASCAR, blue collar, gun toting, pickup driving, union, church going, deer hunting crowd. And dude... she's tailor made to appeal to them. They love her, and they think of her as one of their own which is why when Democrats attack her family choices they're shooting themselves in the foot. If she plays well here, I suspect she'll also be popular in Ohio, Penn and other states that are heavy with Reagan Democrats.
So what should you do?
Back the fuck off when it comes to asking about whether or not she can handle being a mom and on the pregnancy of her daughter, because if this campaign becomes about Sarah Palin's family – you're going to lose.
Stick to the issues, especially the economy and gas prices, and pound the shit out of the Republicans there. Talk about how how jobs are moving out of the country – and what the hell you're going to do about it.
Stop trying to compare Palin's experience to Obama's experience. Let's face it, their experience is equally thin. And since your inexperienced candidate is on the top of the ticket, you're the ones with the most to lose. Besides, this argument is a loser argument. It didn't work for Hillary. It didn't work for McCain, and it's not going to work against Palin. It's a waste of time, and turns one of your biggest strengths (that Obama hasn't spent tons of time in Washington) into a weakness.
Don't make anymore statements about guns and religion. Do not let them make you out to be one of the out of touch, intellectual elite, Washington insiders.
And for Michigan specifically – take advantage of the fact that Kwami Kilpatrick has finally been booted out of office. Point out that it was the Democrats that were the driving force getting him out and fighting corruption from within their own party.
Seriously. Don't underestimate this choice, by minimizing it or thinking it's stupid. It's goddamned brilliant. It's your election to lose, and in the last week or so, you've done a spectacular job at fucking up an almost sure thing.
Michigan should not be in play in this election. We've voted for Democrats in the last five presidential elections. We have a Democrat Governor, a Democrat controlled state house and senate. Both of our senators are democrats. We're bigtime union country and our economy is actually worse than the rest of the nation. And yet, we are in play – which tells me one thing:
Obama is in big fucking trouble, and needs to do something about it RIGHT NOW.
You need to understand that despite all the talk about her appealing to all the disgruntled Clinton women PUMA voters, that's not even the primary reason he chose her. And that all of the hollering and screaming about “OMG JOHN MCCAIN IS ASSUMING WE'LL VOTE WITH HER BECAUSE SHE HAS A VAGINA. WHAT A FUCKTARD!” is completely missing the point.
This is what John McCain wanted to do with this pick:
Steal Obama's thunder right after his speech at the end of the DNC and to keep the press on the Republicans until after the RNC. Let's face it, if the VP choice had been less shocking it would have been a footnote, and Obama's DNC speech that would have gotten days of airtime coverage. As it is – the Democrats are so desperate for media attention that Obama went on Bill O'Riley's show last night, because they knew it would make headlines.
Galvanize his base of conservatives who have been totally lukewarm towards him but now are just as excited about her as Democrats are about Obama.
Rub salt in the wound and keep the wedge between the disgruntled Hillary voters and the Obama supporters. I really don't think McCain figures he's going gain many votes from the women who vote mostly on Roe v. Wade. But what he wants to do is keep them pissed off enough at the Obama camp so that they stay home or vote for a third party candidate. And every sexist statement by the media or your supporters helps make this happen.
Add someone onto the ticket who's not a Washington insider. This is another huge bonus, because people love voting for governors. In fact, there's only been two siting congressmen that have ever won a presidential ticket. And as much as people hate Bush, they hate congress even more (they have what, a 19% approval rating? Even Bush has more supporters than that). The fact that she's from Alaska makes it even better, because people romanticize the state,like it's the last frontier or something.
Woo the independents and Reagan Democrats. This is where he's planning on picking up votes – from the NASCAR, blue collar, gun toting, pickup driving, union, church going, deer hunting crowd. And dude... she's tailor made to appeal to them. They love her, and they think of her as one of their own which is why when Democrats attack her family choices they're shooting themselves in the foot. If she plays well here, I suspect she'll also be popular in Ohio, Penn and other states that are heavy with Reagan Democrats.
So what should you do?
Back the fuck off when it comes to asking about whether or not she can handle being a mom and on the pregnancy of her daughter, because if this campaign becomes about Sarah Palin's family – you're going to lose.
Stick to the issues, especially the economy and gas prices, and pound the shit out of the Republicans there. Talk about how how jobs are moving out of the country – and what the hell you're going to do about it.
Stop trying to compare Palin's experience to Obama's experience. Let's face it, their experience is equally thin. And since your inexperienced candidate is on the top of the ticket, you're the ones with the most to lose. Besides, this argument is a loser argument. It didn't work for Hillary. It didn't work for McCain, and it's not going to work against Palin. It's a waste of time, and turns one of your biggest strengths (that Obama hasn't spent tons of time in Washington) into a weakness.
Don't make anymore statements about guns and religion. Do not let them make you out to be one of the out of touch, intellectual elite, Washington insiders.
And for Michigan specifically – take advantage of the fact that Kwami Kilpatrick has finally been booted out of office. Point out that it was the Democrats that were the driving force getting him out and fighting corruption from within their own party.
Seriously. Don't underestimate this choice, by minimizing it or thinking it's stupid. It's goddamned brilliant. It's your election to lose, and in the last week or so, you've done a spectacular job at fucking up an almost sure thing.
From:
no subject
I think it was rather awesomely hilarious that she tried it. I think it only partially worked because she was married to a guy that could pass as a redneck himself.
Throughout most of the convention Obama held an 8 point lead over McCain. At the convention's end, they're tied but to me that shows that he held up pretty well, maintaining a stronger lead than he did throughout the DNC (which I found really surprising myself). So, yes, they're tied now, but I think they're doing pretty well myself.
See here's the thing that would be freaking me out if I were a Democrat right now. They're almost tied (I think they're right in the margin of error), but during the primaries Obama almost always polls a few points higher than he gets. When you add in the fact that he's counting on the youth vote to win this, that's some dicey stuff right there, especially since if they do end up turning out, this will be the first time pretty much ever. I mean how many times have the Democrats said that they were going to have the youth vote come out - and then they all stayed at home?
On the whole though, I doubt Palin will play a huge influence on this election.
I dunno. I think she already has in the fact that she's helped the Republicans get excited about their own candidate. Just her impact on fundraising already is pretty huge. And I don't think it's accidental that over the last few days, they've been campaigning in the rust belt states pretty hard core. Normally I'd agree that people tend to vote for the top of the ticket first and foremost - but really, this has been one crazy ass election year, and I think like the Republican base, a lot of the Reagan Democrats are looking for a reason to be excited about McCain, and he just handed them one.
I guess we'll have to wait and see.
From:
no subject
And I definitely agree that Palin is invigorating the Republican base. I guess it really comes down to, as usual, how many Democrats get out and vote. I'm always frustrated with my party's inability to actually vote for what it believes in (as far as I'm concerned, in a republic where you can vote you have no write to complain if you don't participate) but I'm hopeful that Obama appealing to both black voters and young people (like me, admittedly) will make demographics that are typically low in participation more likely to vote come November.
But we'll just have to wait and see. I know what you mean by "dicey."